Short answer
The payout is the profit on a winning trade as a percentage of the stake. Your break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + payout): 55.6% at an 80% payout, 54.1% at 85% and 52.1% at 92%. A few points of payout change how many trades you must win, so always check it before you open a position.
What the payout number means
If the platform shows 85% and you stake $20, a winning trade returns $37: your $20 back plus $17 profit. A losing trade returns nothing. The payout never applies to losses — they always cost the full stake.
Break-even win rates
The share of trades you must win to end at zero is 1 ÷ (1 + payout).
| Payout | Break-even win rate | Wins needed out of 100 |
|---|---|---|
| 70% | 58.82% | 59 |
| 75% | 57.14% | 58 |
| 80% | 55.56% | 56 |
| 85% | 54.05% | 55 |
| 88% | 53.19% | 54 |
| 90% | 52.63% | 53 |
| 92% | 52.08% | 53 |
Each payout point matters. Going from 80% to 90% lowers the bar by almost three percentage points — that can be the difference between a losing and a break-even method.
Expected result per trade
The average result per trade is:
win rate × stake × payout − loss rate × stake
With a $10 stake, 85% payout and 55% win rate: 0.55 × 8.50 − 0.45 × 10 = +$0.18 per trade. Over 100 trades that is about +$18 — before any losing streak tests your nerves. Run your own numbers in the break-even calculator.
Why payouts move during the day
- Liquidity. Major pairs during the London–New York overlap tend to get better payouts than at night.
- OTC hours. When the real market is closed, brokers quote OTC prices and often lower payouts.
- Expiry. Very short expiries may pay differently from 5- or 15-minute ones.
Practical rule
Before each session, write down the payout you are getting on your main asset and compare it with the table above. If the payout falls below the level your tested win rate can support, do not trade that hour.
FAQ
Why does the payout change?
Brokers adjust payouts by asset, expiry and time of day. Quiet hours and OTC assets often pay less; liquid hours on major pairs often pay more.
Is a higher payout always better?
For the same win rate, yes. But a high payout on an asset you do not understand is worse than a slightly lower payout on one you have tested.
How this page was made: drafted with AI assistance from public sources and our own test logs, then checked and edited by the ExpiryLab editorial team. The date above shows the last check. How we test · Editorial policy